The largest number of older people over 60 differ. An aging planet: the number of retirees threatens the global economy
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News release
September 30, 2015 ¦ Geneva - With medical advances enabling more people to live longer, the number of people over 60 is expected to double by 2050, according to a new report released by the World Health Organization (WHO) on International Day of Older Persons (October 1), necessitating dramatic social change.
“Today, most people, even in the poorest countries, are living longer,” said Dr Margaret Chan, WHO Director-General. “But that's not enough. We need to ensure that during these additional years people remain healthy, live fully and maintain human dignity. Achieving this goal will not only benefit older people, but society as a whole.”
Longer life doesn't always mean a healthier life
Contrary to popular assumptions, the authors of the Report believe that there is little evidence to show that people's health in the extra years of life improves compared to the health of past generations at the same age. "Unfortunately, 70-year-olds have not yet become a new group of 60-year-olds," said Dr John John Beard, Director, WHO Department of Aging and life cycle. “But it could be so. And that's how it should be."
Some older people may indeed live longer and still be healthier, but they tend to belong to the most affluent sections of society. “The socially disadvantaged populations – from the poorest countries, with the least opportunities and the fewest resources for older people – have the worst health and the most needs,” said Dr. Byrd.
The Report emphasizes that governments must implement policies that allow older people to continue to participate in society and prevent the inequities that often lead to ill health in old age.
Aging is a missed opportunity for society
The authors of the Report break down stereotypes that older people are weak and dependent, and argue that the contribution of older people goes largely unnoticed, while the demands placed on society due to population aging are often exaggerated or exaggerated.
The Report highlights that while some older people require care and support, large groups of older people make a wide variety of contributions at the level of individuals, communities and society more broadly. The Report provides scientific evidence to suggest that this contribution far outweighs any investment that might be required for the health care, long-term care and welfare needs of older people. It also argues that policies should not be directed towards cost containment, but towards empowering older people to do what is important to them.
This will be especially important for women, who make up the majority of older people, who bear a large share of the family responsibility for caring for those who can no longer take care of themselves. “Looking to the future, we need to recognize the importance of older age in the lives of women, especially in poor countries,” said Dr Flavia Bustreo, WHO Assistant Director-General for Family, Women's and Children's Health. “And we need to think a lot more about how to keep women healthy throughout their lives.”
But one factor will play a key role in whether aging societies will be able to realize the opportunities for their restructuring, and that factor is the health of older people.
A bright future ahead
The Report highlights three key areas of action that will require a fundamental shift in the way society views aging and older people. Thanks to these activities, today's and tomorrow's older people will be able to create new models of life.
First of all, in the places where we live, it is necessary to create conditions that are much more favorable for the life of older people. good examples can be found in the WHO Global Network of Older Friendly Cities and Communities, which now has over 280 members in 33 countries, ranging from the New Delhi Slum Older Safety Project to the Men's Sheds associations in Australia and Ireland trying to fight social isolation and loneliness.
Integrating the needs of older people into health systems will also be critical. This will require a shift away from treatment-centric systems acute diseases, to systems capable of providing continuous care for people with chronic conditions that are most prevalent in older age. Already successful initiatives can be scaled up and rolled out in other countries. Examples include the creation of multi-professional teams such as physiotherapists, psychologists, nutritionists, occupational therapists, doctors and nurses in Brazil, and the sharing of computerized patient records between social service agencies in Canada.
In addition, governments need to develop long-term care systems that will reduce levels of misuse medical services intended for the treatment of acute diseases, and to ensure that people live with human dignity in the last years of life. Families will need caregiving support to free up women, who are often the primary caregivers of older family members, and raise their profile in society. Even simple strategies such as Internet-based support for caregivers in the Netherlands or support for older people's associations in Viet Nam show promise.
For more information please contact:
Christian Lindmeier
Liaison Officer, WHO
Tel.: +41 22 791 1948
Mobile phone: +41 79 500 6552
Email mail:
Alison Brunier
Liaison Officer, WHO
Tel: +41 22 791 4468
Mobile phone: +41 79 701 9480
Email mail:
In 37 countries, the number of people aged 60 and over exceeded the number of children under 15
According to UN experts, the number of people aged 60 and over reached almost 705 million in 2007, including 495 million people aged 65 and over and 94 million people aged 80 and over. The relative population of 60 years and older was 10.7%, 65 years and older - 7.5%, 80 years and older - 1.4%.
Most of the process demographic aging affected the most developed regions of the world, primarily Europe, in the least - the least developed countries (Fig. 1). If about 18% of all people in the world live in the most developed countries, then among people 60 years of age and older - almost 36%, and among people 80 years of age and older - more than half (51%).
There are significant differences between regions in the relative size of the elderly population. Currently, one fifth of the population of the most developed regions is made up of people aged 60 years and older, and by 2050, according to forecasts, their proportion will increase to one third. In less developed regions, the proportion of older persons is now only 8%, but by 2050 it will increase to 20%, that is, by the middle of this century, developing countries can reach the stage of demographic aging in which developed countries are currently.
Figure 1. The proportion of the population of older age groups by major regions of the world, 2007, % of total strength population
Among countries of the world The proportion of the population aged 60 and over varies from 1.7% in the UAE to 27.9% in Japan. When ordering the values of this indicator in descending order in 192 countries for 2007, Russia (17.1%) takes 44th place in this series immediately after the USA (17.2%). In addition to Japan, Italy (26.4%) and Germany (25.3%) have the highest proportion of older people. In another 24 European countries, it ranges from 20.1% to 24.1% (Fig. 2).
On the other hand, in 2 countries of the world the proportion of the population aged 60 and over in 2007 did not exceed 3% (UAE and Qatar), in 11 - 4%, in 39 countries - 5%.
Figure 2. Share of the population aged 60 and over in 192 countries, 2007, % of the total population
The aging index, which shows the ratio of the number of older and younger ages, in the whole world was about 39% in 2007 (39 people aged 60 and over per 100 people under 15). In the more developed regions of the world, where the number of older people already exceeded the number of children in the late 1990s, it reached 124, in the less developed countries - 28, in the least developed 12. Among the large geographical regions, the aging index exceeds 100% only in Europe (136), while in North America it is still 86, in Australia and New Zealand - 93. In Africa, with the highest proportion of children under the age of 15 - 41.1% - and the lowest proportion of the elderly - 5.3 % - the aging index is 13 (Fig. 3).
Figure 3. Child to elderly ratio by major regions of the world, 2007, % of total population and aging index (number of persons aged 60 and over per 100 children under 15 years of age)
Among the countries of the world, the aging index ranges from 6.6 in Niger to 201 in Japan. Russia occupies the 30th place in this row (Fig. 4). In 37 countries of the world, it exceeds the level of 100%, that is, the number of people aged 60 and over is greater than the number of children under 15 years of age. In addition to European countries, this group includes the already mentioned Japan, Hong Kong (a special autonomous region of China) and Canada. Australia has an aging index of 95, while New Zealand and the US have an aging index of 84.
In 20 countries of the world, the aging index does not even reach 10 (that is, for 100 children under the age of 15, no more than 10 people aged 60 and older come there). This group consists mainly of African countries, as well as Afghanistan and the occupied territory of Palestine.
However, the population aging process in developing countries is faster than in developed countries. Therefore, developing countries will have less time to adapt to its consequences. In addition, the process of population aging in developing countries occurs at lower levels of socio-economic development than in developed countries.
Figure 4. World Aging Index, 2007, number of persons aged 60 years and over per 100 children under 15 years of age
An important characteristic age composition is the median age, dividing the population in half. In 2007, the median age of the world's population was over 28, meaning that half of humanity was under 28 and the other half over 28. In Europe, it reached 39 years, while in Africa and the group of least developed countries it did not exceed 19 years (Fig. 5).
Figure 5. Median age of the population of the main regions of the world, 2007, years
The country with the youngest population is Uganda, where the median age does not even reach 15 years; Japan has the oldest population, where it approaches 43 years (Fig. 6). In addition to Japan, the median age is above 42 in Italy and Germany, and above 40 in 8 other European countries. Russia in this series takes 34th place. On the other hand, in 62 countries around the world, half the population is made up of children and young people under 20 years of age.
Picture. 6. Median age of the population of the countries of the world, 2007, years
Because women tend to have longer life expectancies than men, the older population is dominated by women. There are currently about 70 million more women than men in the population aged 60 and over. Among people aged 80 years and older, there are almost two times more of them than men, and among centenarians who have crossed the 100-year mark, there are 4-5 times more.
If among the population aged 40-59 years women make up approximately 50%, then in the group of 60 years and older - 55%, 80 years and older - 64%, 100 years and older - 82%. At the same time, the excess of the number of women over the number of men is more pronounced in developed countries in general and, in particular, in Europe (Fig. 7).
Lonely older people are at higher risk of social exclusion and economic deprivation and therefore need special support. Due to more high rates surviving to older ages and a lower likelihood of remarriage among older people living alone is higher for women than for men. Globally, the proportion of single women aged 60 and over is 19%, while among men of the same age - only 8%.
Figure 7. Sex ratio in older age groups - 60 and over, 65 and over, 80 and over, 2007, men per 100 women
The elderly population, in turn, is also aging. Among people aged 60 years and older, the proportion of the oldest age category, 80 years and older, is growing most rapidly. Among people aged 60 years and older today, one in eight is over 80 (13%), and by 2050, out of every ten older people, about two will be over 80 years old (20%).
At present, the growth rate of the population of older ages is significantly ahead of the growth rate of the total population: if the total population of the world increases annually by about 1.1%, then the population of 60 years and older - by 2.6%, 80 years and older - by 3.9% (Fig. 8). It is expected that, at least until 2050, the elderly population will increase at a faster rate than other age groups. Such a high rate of growth in the elderly population will require profound social and economic transformation in most countries.
Figure 8. Growth rates of the population of older ages - 60 years and older, 65 years and older, 80 years and older - by major regions of the world, 2007, %
Sources:
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.
World Population Aging 2007. - New York, 2007. -
Old age is not a joy for the West
Unlike developing countries, which have only experienced population aging in the last few decades, developed countries have been experiencing this process for more than a hundred years. The number of elderly people in them has already exceeded the number of children, and by 2050. There will be twice as many retirees in the US, Western Europe and Japan as there are young citizens.
Japan ranks first in the world in terms of the proportion of the elderly population: almost 25% of people aged 65 years and older live in the Land of the Rising Sun today. Another developed Asian state is rapidly approaching it - South Korea, which due to very low scores fertility may in the near future become one of the most "old" countries on the planet.
The United States is in a difficult situation, where federal programs for providing health insurance for the elderly, special care for them, providing them with health care services account for more than 10% of GDP.
Europe has even fewer reasons for optimism, because today the pension expenditures of the EU member states “eat up” about 13% of their gross domestic product. In the future, European countries will be forced to spend even more money on the maintenance of the elderly. Thus, in the UK, budget expenditures only on pensions in the next 45-50 years can grow by almost 3 percentage points - up to 8.4% of GDP.
For every European pensioner today, on average, there are four people of working age, but by 2050. the ratio could be as high as 1 to 2. "An aging population and the burden of pension and social spending is dragging down economic growth. If nothing is done today, it will be much more difficult in the future," says Martin Kazaks, chief economist at Swedbank in Riga.
Over the past two decades, the share of children in the EU countries has decreased by 3.7 percentage points, while the number of older people has increased by 3.6 percentage points. If existing trends continue, the able-bodied population of the continent by 2050 will will be reduced by 40 million people. Such a scenario will become a real nightmare for the European economy, which will not be able to compete on equal terms with the "younger" and dynamically developing countries.
The problem of an aging population in the developed world is exacerbated by the current crisis in the global economy. Companies that lay off their employees en masse often offer various pension schemes to ex-employees as compensation. At the same time, the reduction of the age staff for the most part does not imply the hiring of new employees in their place, that is, potential taxpayers. Thus, the entire burden of providing pensions for the dismissed citizens falls on the state, whose budget is already bursting at the seams.
Population aging for Western Europe, the United States and Japan is becoming one of the key problems, the solution of which requires truly titanic efforts from the authorities of these countries. And they are much larger than those aimed at combating the current economic crisis. Experts from the Fitch rating agency rightly point out that the "aging" of developed countries threatens their fiscal systems with another collapse.
Chinese time bomb
Developing states "age" much faster than developed ones. Currently, 7 out of 15 countries with more than 10 million elderly people represent the developing world. By 2050 the number of old people will exceed 10 million people in another 15 "catching up" economies. At the same time, it is much more difficult for them to adapt to new realities than the United States and Europe.
The lagging economies face the challenge of building efficient welfare and health care systems. Developing countries will be forced to direct a significant part of their resources to modernizing medicine and building a universal model for caring for the elderly. Nor can they avoid restructuring the currently functioning pension systems.
Traditionally, the old age of parents in developing countries was provided by their children. However, in the context of a rapid increase in the number of pensioners and no less intense reduction in the number of able-bodied population, this burden may soon become unbearable for the younger generation.
Moreover, the objective reality is that in a highly individualized and rapidly changing world, fewer and fewer young people are ready to provide for their parents in old age. Without an appropriate system of support from the state, the developing world may face large-scale social problems in the near future.
Among rapidly developing countries, China is "aging" faster than others, where by 2050. people aged 65 and over will make up a quarter of the population. If in developed countries the share of the population over 60 years old has grown over 60 years (from 1950 to 2010) by 3 percentage points, then in China it has increased by 3.8 percentage points in just the period from 2000 to 2010. By the middle of the century, 480 million elderly Chinese will live in China. "This is a real time bomb," said Wang Feng, head of the Brookings-Tsinghua Public Policy Center.
In the late 1970s - early 1980s. the Chinese government began to encourage marriage at a later age, as well as increasing the time periods between births. At the same time, an extremely controversial population policy under which a family was allowed to have no more than one child. The state began to limit the population for the sake of large-scale modernization of the economy.
The initiatives of the authorities have seriously affected the birth rate in China: the average number of children per Chinese woman during her life has decreased from 5.8 to 1.6 (less than in the US and UK).
The current situation jeopardizes the main competitive advantage of the PRC - the size of the able-bodied contingent, which today consists of 980 million people. It is the colossal labor resources of export-oriented China that have been the engine of the rapid development of the national economy over the past three decades.
According to the forecast of the professor of the Academy social sciences Ren Bingven, since 2015 the working-age population will continuously decline by 1.5% per year until 2045. The rapid decrease in the number of workers will inevitably lead to an increase in their wages and a rise in the cost of labor.
Complains about the problem and Chinese business. “In an aging society, not only the number of workers is decreasing, but there are fewer young people who are more entrepreneurial,” explains James Liang, founder of Ctrip, one of China’s leading online travel agencies. It makes no sense to deny that at 30 a person is more likely to take on new ideas and start a business than at 40, when he is reluctant to take risks because of responsibility for his young children or elderly parents.
China has become one of the few states that "got old" before it got rich. More than 60% of countries have crossed the threshold of old age, when their GDP per capita exceeded $10,000. Another 30% of states "aged" at $5,000. In China, the share of the population over 65 exceeded 7% when the gross domestic per inhabitant did not even reach 1 thousand dollars.
Russia can't get away from difficult decisions
The problem of an aging population is also relevant for Russia. For 2012 The number of people in our country aged 60 years and older was 26.5 million people, or almost 19% of the total number of people living in the Russian Federation. Every eighth Russian citizen has already exceeded the age threshold of 65 years. In the future, the aging of Russians will take on an even greater scale: according to the official demographic forecast, by 2030. the proportion of the population aged 65 and over will exceed 28%.
Since 2010 In Russia, there has been a long-term decline in the number of citizens of working age. In the near future, our country will lose a significant number of workers - more than 7 million people by 2020. According to UN forecasts, by 2050 in Russia, the share of the most economically active part of the country's citizens (20-60 years old) will hardly exceed half of the total population.
The degree of importance of the problem is understood not only by domestic demographers and economists, but also by the authorities. Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly called the rapid aging of the population a worrying demographic factor. "We must reverse these negative trends. Reverse, relying on a systematic and well-calculated policy in this area," the current head of state said back in 2006. On the this moment there are no real changes, and the number of pensioners is growing without being replaced by able-bodied Russian citizens.
Many experts believe that a truly effective measure that will change the negative trend for the Russian economy should be raising the retirement age. The inevitability of its introduction in one of their articles is discussed by the ex-Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Alexei Kudrin and the head of the Economic Expert Group Yevsey Gurvich. In their opinion, in order to avoid serious consequences in the future, it is necessary to start raising the retirement age as soon as possible.
"The boundaries that determine the onset of old age and the state of disability should not be considered fixed, set once for all, they must be regularly adjusted," write A. Kudrin and E. Gurvich.
However, such a painful measure for society is far from unambiguous. Increasing the retirement age in our country carries a huge number of risks for both the elderly and the working population. Many questions about the success of this measure also arise because of the realities in which our country is today. First, Russia has an extremely underdeveloped labor market for the elderly. Secondly, situations are still typical for our country when older people are fired when they reach a certain age.
The expediency of raising the retirement age in Russia is also highly doubtful because of the acute shortage of places in kindergartens. Currently, this problem is largely solved by women who retire at 55 and take care of their grandchildren, allowing their daughters to return to work. Due to the acute shortage of social services for the elderly population in our country, these same pensioners very often help their elderly parents.
In order to avoid a multiple increase in the tax burden on working citizens, on the one hand, and undermine the well-being of pensioners, on the other, the Russian authorities will have to make difficult decisions that can cause serious protests in one or another age group.
Challenges for decades to come
Despite the many negative consequences that are associated with population aging, there is still time for states to adapt to rapidly changing circumstances. Older people make a huge contribution to the development of any sphere of social activity. World governments (particularly developing countries) must recognize this and be fully engaged in formulating policies that will ensure the effective functioning of national economies in the new demographic situation.
For any progressive economy, older people are a valuable and productive resource. Therefore, in order to fully reveal their potential, the authorities must change the established practice in the labor market, which is focused exclusively on the younger generation. Moreover, governments will have to modernize existing state support programs for older citizens, encourage the growth of their savings before retirement age, and take measures to increase the period of labor activity.
Yakov Grabar, RBC
I option
Instruction for students
40 minutes
Part A
1. The State of Bolivia is located:
a) in central Africa;
b) in North America;
d) Southeast Asia.
2. Constitutional monarchies include countries:
a) France, China, Iraq;
b) Japan, Norway, Great Britain;
c) Italy, India, Canada;
d) Armenia, Latvia, Egypt.
3 . The largest number older people (over 60 years old) differ by country:
b) Western Europe;
c) Latin America;
d) North America.
4. Select the line where all states have rich forest resources:
a) Russia, Canada, Brazil;
b) Brazil, Japan, Mongolia;
c) Russia, Poland, China;
d) USA, Italy, Algeria.
5. Which of the following urban agglomerations is the largest in terms of population?
b) London;
d) Mexico City.
6. The main seaport of Foreign Europe is:
a) London
b) Hamburg;
c) Rotterdam;
7. Indicator of a high level of economic development:
a) population;
b) GDP per capita;
c) population density;
d) prices for newspapers and magazines.
8. The OPEC organization unites:
a) the countries of the East; c) oil exporting countries;
b) Asian countries; d) newly industrialized countries.
a) Europe;
b) South America;
c) the Middle East;
d) Australia.
10. Specify the main industry of Foreign Europe:
Part B
11. Match:
Country Capital
1. France; A. Sofia;
2. Bulgaria; B. Ottawa;
3. Canada; V. Cairo;
4. Egypt. G. Paris.
12. Complete the definition:
“The process of urban growth and the spread of urban lifestyle is called _______________________________”
Part C
“It has a favorable economic and geographical position, borders on a highly developed country and has access to two oceans. The capital is one of the most ancient cities of the New World, on the territory of which the centers of ancient civilization have been preserved. There are large reserves of non-ferrous metal ores and oil. According to the level of economic development, it belongs to the "key" countries.
Intermediate certification in geography in the 11th grade
II option
Instruction for students
Before you tasks in geography. For their implementation 40 minutes. Read assignments carefully.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Part A
1. Find the error in the list of African landlocked countries:
a) Egypt
c) Mozambique;
2. The largest number of absolute monarchies is located:
a) in Africa
b) in Foreign Asia;
c) in foreign Europe;
d) in Latin America.
3. Which of the following countries has the largest proportion of children in the age structure of the population?
a) France;
b) Ethiopia;
c) Canada;
d) Russia.
4. The richest in mineral resources:
a) Russia, USA, Canada, China;
b) Japan, Switzerland, Great Britain;
d) China, Mongolia, Turkey, Ukraine.
5. Specify the largest urban agglomerations of Foreign Europe:
a) Ruhr and Madrid;
b) Paris and Ruhr;
c) London and Paris;
d) Madrid and London.
6. Major countries by tonnage of the merchant fleet of the world:
a) Poland and Japan;
b) Panama and Liberia;
c) Greece and Algeria;
d) Norway and Finland.
7. Data on the population of the Earth are obtained as a result of:
a) a survey of the population;
b) population censuses;
c) questioning;
d) collection of signatures.
8. Which of the following countries is part of OPEC?
c) Canada;
d) Kazakhstan.
9. The region is the main "hot spot" of the world:
a) South America;
b) Middle East;
c) Europe;
d) Central Asia.
10. About 1/2 of world oil production falls on the countries:
a) Africa and Foreign Europe;
b) Foreign Europe and the USA;
c) Australia and Central Asia;
d) Foreign Asia and Russia.
Part B
11. Match:
Country Capital
1. Poland; A. Beijing;
2. China; B. Mexico City;
3. Mexico; V. Warsaw;
4. Hungary. G. Budapest.
12. Complete the definition:
"A large form of urban settlement, formed at the confluence of agglomerations, is called _______________________________"
Part C
13. Identify the country by its brief description:
“This ancient country is located on an archipelago and is among the top ten countries in terms of population. Bedna natural resources, the extractive industries account for only 0.3% of GDP. The country is highly urbanized, it has 12 cities - "millionaires". The main industry is diversified, high-tech engineering, the products of which prevail in the structure of the country's exports.