How to calculate the birth rate per 1000 population. Vital indicators
The number of births in Russia decreased by 11% - to 1,690 thousand people
In 2017, the trend towards a decrease in the number of births that emerged in 2015 increased markedly. According to monthly records for January-December, it decreased by 10.7% compared to the same data for 2016, amounting to 1,690 thousand people.
Periodic declines and rises in the number of births have been characteristic of Russia in recent decades (Fig. 11). This is partly due to undulating deformation. age composition population (including the number of women of fertile age), partly - with a change in the intensity of fertility and its age profile.
The last of the observed periods of growth in the number of births fell on 2000-2014. In general, during this period, the number of births increased almost 1.6 times (by 57.5%) - from 1,215 thousand people in 1999 to 1,913 thousand people in 2014 (excluding Crimea), nevertheless, it remained lower. than was registered in 1971-1990 (the largest was in 1987 - 2500 thousand people).
The increase in the number of births varied markedly over the years. By 2004, the number of births increased to 1502 thousand (23.7% more than in 1999), but in 2005 and 2006 there were slightly fewer births than in 2004. After the introduction of support measures for families with children (first of all, maternity capital in the case of the birth of a second child or a child of a higher order), the number of births in 2007 increased by 8.8% compared to 2006. However, then the rate of increase in the number of births began to slow down rapidly, amounting to 6.4% in 2008, 2.8% in 2009, 1.5% in 2010 and 0.4% in 2011. In 2012, the growth in the number of births accelerated again - 1,902,000 births were registered, which is 5.9% more than in 2011 (1,797,000 people). A small contribution to this increase was made by the change in the criteria for live birth, but by no more than 0.2%.
In 2013, the criteria for live birth were further expanded, but the number of births decreased slightly (by 0.3%). The decline continued in 2015-2017 after a slight increase in 2014 (by 0.9%). According to operational reports for January-December 2017, the number of births in Russia (excluding Crimea) amounted to 1,664 thousand people. This is 10.6% less than according to the annual development data for 2016, or 10.8% less than according to comparable data of operational current accounting for January-December 2016 (1,865 thousand people).
In accordance with the change in the number of births, the most accessible and frequently used fertility indicator, the total fertility rate, also changed. Its lowest value - 8.3 births per 1000 resident population - the total fertility rate reached in 1999. In 2004, it rose to 10.4 ‰. Having slightly decreased in 2005 (10.2 ‰), in subsequent years it continued to increase, rising to 13.3 ‰ in 2012. In the next two years, the value of the total fertility rate gradually decreased - to 13.1 ‰ in 2014. In 2015, its value rose again to 13.3 ‰, and in 2016 it decreased to 12.9 ‰ (with and without Crimea). Thus, the period of growth in the total fertility rate was replaced by a relative stabilization at about 13 ‰, which is significantly lower than the level of the mid-1980s (17 ‰), as well as the years preceding this period.
According to current accounting data, in January-December 2017, the total fertility rate decreased to 11.5 ‰.
Against the background of the breakdown of the growth trend and the formation of a trend towards a decrease in the number of births, the trend of a decrease in the number of abortions continued, but it will be discussed in more detail below.
Figure 11. The number of abortions and live births in Russia *, 1960-2017,
thousand people and per 1000 people
* 2014-2017 years excluding fertility data for Crimea
The upward trend in the number of births observed in 2000-2014 was partly due to the fact that larger generations of women born in the 1980s entered fertile age, partly due to an increase in the intensity of fertility.
The number of women between the ages of 20 and 35, who account for the bulk of births, increased from 15.3 million in 1997-1999 to 17.5 million in 2009-2010. Then the decline began - to 15.7 million people at the beginning of 2017 (excluding Crimea). The proportion of women aged 20-34 the total women of reproductive age (15-49 years) increased until 2013, reaching 47.9% against 38.6% in 1998-1999. By the beginning of 2016, it had dropped to 45.4%.
The wavelike distribution of the female population of Russia by one-year age groups shows that at the beginning of 2017, most women in the fertile age were 29 years old (1,269,000) and 30 years old (1,265,000). There were slightly more women only 56 years old from the generation of their mothers who had already completed the reproductive cycle of their lives - 1293 thousand people. Five years earlier, at the beginning of 2012 the largest number women of fertile age accounted for 24 years (1258 thousand) and 25 years (1255 thousand). Over the five years, the number of these female cohorts increased somewhat, which could only have happened due to the increase in migration. But, the main thing is that by the age of 30, many Russian women are already realizing their reproductive intentions, having given birth to at least one child, and generations of younger women are noticeably smaller.
The number of women 19 years old is half that of women 29 years old (637 thousand), and 15-year-old girls are 49% less (647 thousand). In the coming years, the decline in the number of potential mothers will undoubtedly have an impact on the number of births, even if the current intensity of fertility remains unchanged.
Figure 12. Number of women in Russia by age at the beginning of 2012 and 2017, thousand people
In addition to changes in the number and composition of women of reproductive age, a change in the age profile of fertility is of no small importance. In the last quarter of a century, it has changed in Russia not only due to a decrease in the birth rate, but also due to a shift in the pronounced extreme of the birth rate from the 20-24 age group to the 25-29 age group (Fig. 13). In recent years, this shift to the right has persisted, and, in addition, the birth rate has increased in middle and older age groups of women. So, in 2016, the birth rate was higher than in 2000, in all age groups of 25 years and older, but especially significantly - by 49 points per thousand (2.4 times) - in the ages from 30 to 34 years. The increase in the birth rate at the age of 25-29 is somewhat lower (by 44 points per thousand, or 1.7 times) and 35-39 years (by 29 points per thousand, 3.5 times). Fertility at the age of 40 and over is extremely low, but the increase has also affected these groups of women. In the age groups under 25, on the contrary, it slightly decreased (by 6 points per thousand, or 20%). The shift in the peak of fertility to the 25-29 age group coincided with an increase in the number of women of this age, which strengthened the upward trend in the number of births.
Figure 13. Age-specific fertility rates in Russia, 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2016, live births per 1000 women of the corresponding age
Note that such a change in the age model of fertility affected, first of all, urban women. In rural women, the birth rate remains higher, especially at the age of 30, but the age profile until recently was generally similar (Fig. 14). Data for 2016 shows an increasing difference. Among urban women, the birth rate is now highest at the age of 25-29, at the age of 30-34 it is 20% lower, and at the age of 20-24 it is 30% lower. Rural women have the most high fertility is still observed in the 20-24 age group, but now even at the age of 25-29 it is only slightly lower (by 1%). At the age of 30 and older, the birth rate among urban women is now slightly higher than among rural women, whereas before, the excess of the birth rate among urban women was not observed in any age group.
Figure 14. Age-specific fertility rates of the urban and rural population of Russia, 1990, 2000 and 2016, live births per 1000 women of the corresponding age
Returning to the increasing trend of a decrease in the number of births, we note the persistence of another, positive trend - a decrease in the number of abortions (Fig. 11). In 2007, the number of registered abortions for the first time in several decades turned out to be less than the number of registered births (1,479 versus 1,610 thousand). Until the end of the 1990s, the number of abortions exceeded the number of births by more than two times (up to 2.5 times in 1970 and 2.4 times in 1993). In 2007, there were 92 registered abortions per 100 births, and by 2015 it dropped to 44. In 2016, the number of abortions per 100 births slightly increased, amounting to 44.6, but the absolute number of abortions continued to decline. Compared to 1990, the number of abortions has decreased by 4.9 times (837 thousand in 2016 against 4103 thousand in 1990).
The decrease in the frequency of abortions occurs as a result of changes in the contraceptive behavior of the population and an increase in the effectiveness of family planning. According to a sample survey of reproductive plans of the population, conducted in September-October 2017, 61.5% of women aged 18-44, married (registered or unregistered), used any means of contraception. The most popular is barrier contraception (condoms, diaphragms, etc.), which is used by 27.5% of women. This type of contraception is especially popular among young people - almost 35% of women under the age of 25 use these methods, in older age groups the share of their adherents decreases - to 20.6% of women 40 and older (Fig. 15).
Hormonal contraception has become quite popular, the use of which was indicated by 17.4% of the women surveyed. Young women use this method less often (11.6% among women under 25), and middle-aged women more often (up to 20.2% at the age of 35-39 versus 11.6% at the age of 25).
Ineffective methods of natural (physiological) contraception remain popular and are used by 15.1% of women aged 18-44. It is most common among women aged 25 to 34 years (17.5% at the age of 30-34), to a lesser extent among young people under 25 (10.1%).
In general, modern intrauterine contraception is less popular - 10.1% of all surveyed women indicated its use. It is least common among young women (2.9% under the age of 25), but with increasing age, the prevalence of this type of contraception also increases (13.2% among women 40 and older).
The share of those who do not use any methods of contraception from pregnancy is lowest in the age group 30-34 years old (33.2%), the highest among women under 25 years old (45.7%) and 40 years and older (44.5%).
Figure 15. Use of contraception in Russia, selective observation of reproductive plans of the population (RPN-2017),% of women of the appropriate age who chose the appropriate answers to the question: “What methods of preventing pregnancy do you use now? (several answer options can be marked) "
The presented results of the 2017 sample survey are slightly lower than those obtained in the course of a similar survey in 2011. In 2011, 68% of married women aged 15-44, including 55% of modern women, used any methods of contraception. Whether this is due to an increase in the proportion of women intending to have a child, or some other factors, researchers have yet to find out, so far only the very first results are published.
In addition to the downward trend in the absolute and relative number of abortions, it is worth noting the persistence of the tendency that has emerged in Russia in recent years to reduce the proportion of women born to unmarried women. Such trends are not observed in any developed country. Until the mid-1980s, the proportion of those born out of a registered marriage barely exceeded 10%, and after 20 years it increased to 30% (in 2005). Similar trends in the growth of out-of-wedlock births were observed during this period or somewhat earlier in many European countries. However, in the second half of the 2000s, the proportion of unmarried women born to Russian women began to decline and dropped in 2016 to 21.1% (Fig. 20 in the section on marriage and divorce).
Returning to the preliminary demographic results for 2017, let us note the seasonal characteristics of the birth rate. At present, the number of births is little subject to a clearly pronounced seasonal dependence, although there are always certain peaks and troughs during the year. The revised data of the annual development are smoother in comparison with the data of the operational monthly accounting, but, nevertheless, their comparison is of certain interest. In the 1990s, the largest number of births was recorded in January and March, and the smallest in the last months of the year; in the 2000s, the largest number of births was recorded in the summer months, slightly fewer in March, and the least, as in the 1990s. years, in October-December. In 2017, the largest number of births was registered in August (159.6 thousand), the least (123.7) - in April (Fig. 16).
Figure 16. The number of births in Russia, by months 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015-2017 *,
thousands of people
* 2015-2017 - according to monthly operational accounting data excluding Crimea, other years - according to updated annual development data
Seasonal deviations of the monthly numbers of births from the average annual values also indicate a change in the seasonal “wave” of births. In 1990 and 1995, the monthly numbers of births in January-July exceeded the average annual values, and in September-December they were noticeably lower (Fig. 17). In 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, lower numbers of monthly births in October-December persisted, but greatest value has clearly shifted to the summer months.
According to the monthly operational data for January-December 2017, there is an increase in the number of births in June-September with lower values in January, April-May and October-December.
Figure 17. Seasonal deviations of the monthly numbers of births from the average annual values in Russia,
by months 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015-2017 * years,%
* 2017 - according to monthly operational accounting data excluding Crimea, other years - according to updated annual development data (2015-2016, taking into account information on Crimea)
In the overwhelming majority of Russian regions, an extremely low birth rate has long been formed. According to data for January-December 2017, the total fertility rate was lower than the average for Russia (11.5 ‰) in 45 out of 85 subjects Russian Federation, in 36 it exceeded it, and in 4 it corresponded to it (Fig. 18). The value of the total fertility rate varied from 8.4 ‰ in the Leningrad region to 21.8 ‰ in the Republic of Tyva (in 2016 - from 9.2 ‰ to 23.4 ‰ in the same regions). In several Russian regions, the value of the total fertility rate reaches a high level: more than 20 ‰ in the republics of Tyva and Chechnya, somewhat lower - 15-16 ‰ - in the republics of Ingushetia, Dagestan, Altai, Buryatia, and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug. However, in the central half of the regions, the value of the total fertility rate varies at lower levels - from 10.3 ‰ to 12.4 ‰ with a median value of 11.3 ‰.
Compared with similar data for January-December 2016, the value of the total fertility rate has decreased in all regions. The largest decrease in the value of the total fertility rate - by 3 percentage points - was noted in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, in another 7 regions it decreased by 2 or more percentage points.
Figure 18. Total fertility rate by region-constituent entities of the Russian Federation 2016 and 2017, live births per 1000 population
according to the operational current accounting for January-December
Differentiation of Russian regions by the level of total fertility is associated not only with differences in the intensity of fertility, but also with the peculiarities of the age structure of the population. Regions of the European part with an older age structure of the population have the lowest total fertility rates (10.5 ‰ according to data for January-December 2017 in the Central Federal District). In the regions of the North Caucasus, Siberia and Of the Far East whose population is younger in their age structure, these indicators are higher (up to 14.9 ‰ in the North Caucasian Federal District).
The crude birth rate is only the most rapid and rough estimate of the birth rate. A more adequate integral characteristic of fertility is the total fertility rate, which eliminates the influence of the age structure, although it is itself subject to the influence of changes in the calendar of births (“rejuvenation” or “aging” of fertility, decrease or increase in the average age of the mother at the birth of children of different order). However, information on these characteristics appears with a rather significant lag (in contrast to the total number of births and the total fertility rate) after the specification of all data from the annual development.
The lowest value of the total fertility rate in Russia was noted in 1999 - 1.157. In 2000-2015, its value increased (except for 2005) - up to 1,777 in 2015, which corresponds approximately to the level of the early 1990s and is 15% lower than the level required for simple reproduction (2.1). In 2016, there was a decrease - the value of the total fertility rate was 1.762. According to the average version of the forecast of Rosstat, published in December 2017, the total fertility in 2017 will decrease to 1.608, and by 2020 to 1,600.
The birth rate of women living in rural areas, as shown above, remains higher than in urban areas. In 2012, the total fertility of rural women in Russia increased to 2.215, exceeding the level of simple reproduction, and continued to increase in the next two years, having risen to 2.318 in 2014. According to Rosstat estimates for 2015, the total fertility rate in rural areas decreased to 2.111, and in 2016 - to 2.056. The birth rate of urban women, despite the increase, remains significantly lower. In 2016, the total birth rate of the urban population was 1,672.
The birth rate among rural women grew faster than among urban women, as a result of which the differences between them began to grow again. If in 2005, when the differences were the smallest, the total birth rate in the countryside was 31% higher than in the city, then in 2013-2014 - by 46%. In 2015-2016, the differences sharply decreased to an unprecedented level - the excess of the “rural” birth rate in 2016 fell to 23%.
The decline in fertility to extremely low levels in most Russian regions was accompanied by a decrease in regional differentiation in terms of the total fertility rate. Only in a small number of subjects of the federation does its value exceed the level of simple reproduction. In 2016, there were only 7 such regions out of 85: the republics of Tyva, Altai, Chechnya, Buryatia, the Nenets and Chukotka Autonomous Districts, as well as the Sakhalin Region. The value of the total fertility rate varied from 1.318 in the Leningrad region to 3.345 in the Republic of Tyva (Fig. 19). In the central half of the regions, the value of the indicator in 2016 varied within a narrow range from 1.653 to 1.946, with a median value of 1.777.
In most regions, the total fertility of the rural population is higher than that of the urban population, but in 18 subjects of the federation, the total fertility of the urban population in 2016 was, on the contrary, higher than that of the rural population. In the Moscow and Leningrad regions, the Chechen Republic, the excess was up to 0.4 and more. Extremely high values of the total fertility rate of the rural population have been noted in recent years in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug and the Republic of Tyva (more than 6 children per woman), the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug (5.2), the Altai and Komi Republics, the Arkhangelsk Region without the Nenets Autonomous Okrug (4, 1 - 4.2). To understand whether this is due to the higher susceptibility of rural residents to measures to support families with children, the peculiarities of the current registration and registration of demographic events, or some other factors, additional research is needed.
Figure 19. The total fertility rate by region-constituent entities of the Russian Federation,
2016, children per woman
* Calculated according to: Demographic Yearbook of Russia, 2001, p. 140.
Table 6
(the average number of births per woman in a lifetime) in Russia in 1961-2000.
| Years | Total fertility rates | in% to the level of 1 961 -1962 | Level in cities in% of the level in villages | ||||
| whole population | urban | rural | whole population | urban | rural | ||
| 1961-1962 | 2,417 | 1,935 | 3,195 | 100,0 | 100,0 | 100,0 | 60,6 |
| 1962-1963 | 2,311 | 1,847 | 3,098 | 95,6 | 95,5 | 97,0 | 59,6 |
| 1963-1964 | 2,227 | 1,782 | 3,026 | 92,1 | 92,1 | 94,7 | 58,9 |
| 1964-1965 | 2,139 | 1,732 | 2,928 | 88,5 | 89,5 | 91.6 | 59,2 |
| 1965-1966 | 2,125 | 1,728 | 2,974 | 87,9 | 89,3 | 93,1 | 58,1 |
| 1966-1967 | 2,072 | 1,707 | 2,898 | 85.7 | 88,2 | 90,7 | 58,9 |
| 1967-1968 | 1,998 | 1,677 | 2,746 | 82,7 | 86,7 | 85,9 | 61,1 |
| 1968-1969 | 1,975 | 1,696 | 2,627 | 81.7 | 87,6 | 82,2 | 64,6 |
| 1969-1970 | 1,972 | 1,733 | 2,535 | 81,6 | 89,6 | 79,3 | 68,4 |
| 1970-1971 | 2,007 | 1,773 | 2,588 | 83,0 | 91,6 | 81,0 | 68,5 |
| 1971-1972 | 2,053 | 1,825 | 2,656 | 84,9 | 94,3 | 83,1 | 68,7 |
| 1972-1973 | 2,023 | 1,800 | 2,660 | 83,7 | 93,0 | 83,3 | 67,7 |
| 1973-1974 | 2,000 | 1,770 | 2,704 | 82,7 | 91,5 | 84,6 | 65,5 |
| 1974-1975 | 1,993 | 1,757 | 2,764 | 82,5 | 90,8 | 86,5 | 63,6 |
| 1975-1976 | 1,969 | 1,734 | 2,779 | 81,5 | 89,6 | 87,0 | 62,4 |
| 1976-1977 | 1,967 | 1,737 | 2,773 | 81,4 | 89,8 | 86,8 | 62,6 |
| 1977-1978 | 1,938 | 1,717 | 2,734 | 80,2 | 88,7 | 85,6 | 62,8 |
| 1978-1979 | 1,902 | 1,714 | 2,497 | 78,7 | 88,6 | 78,2 | 68,6 |
| 1979-1980 | 1,888 | 1,698 | 2,504 | 78,1 | 87,8 | 78,4 | 67,8 |
| 1980-1981 | 1,895 | 1,700 | 2,562 | 78,4 | 87,9 | 80,2 | 66,4 |
| 1981-1982 | 1,951 | 1,739 | 2,758 | 80,7 | 89,9 | 86,3 | 63,1 |
| 1982-1983 | 2,047 | 1,820 | 2,910 | 84,7 | 94,1 | 91,1 | 62,5 |
| 1983-1984 | 2,083 | 1,850 | 2,988 | 86,2 | 95,6 | 93,5 | 61,9 |
| 1984-1985 | 2,057 | 1,826 | 2,936 | 85,1 | 94,4 | 91,9 | 62,2 |
| 1985-1986 | 2,111 | 1,874 | 3,003 | 87,3 | 96,8 | 94,0 | 62,4 |
| 1986-1987 | 2,194 | 1,947 | 3,162 | 90,8 | 100,6 | 99,0 | 61,6 |
| 2,130 | 1,896 | 3,057 | 88,1 | 98,0 | 95,7 | 62,0 | |
| 2,007 | 1,826 | 2,630 | 83,0 | 94,4 | 82,3 | 69,4 | |
| 1,887 | 1,701 | 2,526 | 78,1 | 87,9 | 79,1 | 67,3 | |
| 1,732 | 1,540 | 2,384 | 71,7 | 79,6 | 74,6 | 64,6 | |
| 1,552 | 1,362 | 2,177 | 64,2 | 70,4 | 68,1 | 62,6 | |
| 1,385 | 1,215 | 1,935 | 57,3 | 62,8 | 60,6 | 62,8 | |
| 1,400 | 1,249 | 1,892 | 57.9 | 64,5 | 59,2 | 66.0 | |
| 1,344 | 1,207 | 1,788 | 55,6 | 62,4 | 56,0 | 67,5 | |
| 1,281 | 1,158 | 1,677 | 53,0 | 59,8 | 52,5 | 69,1 | |
| 1,230 | 1,118 | 1,586 | 50,9 | 57,8 | 49,6 | 70,5 | |
| 1,242 | 1,133 | 1,580 | 51,4 | 58,6 | 49,5 | 71,7 | |
| 1,171 | 1,072 | 1,479 | 48,4 | 55,4 | 46,3 | 72,5 | |
| 1,214 | 1,125 | 1,487 | 50.2 | 58,1 | 46,5 | 75,7 |
* Demographic Yearbook of Russia, 2001, p. 121.
With a birth rate of 2000, one woman gives birth to 1.21 children in her entire life. The overall ratio does not give an idea of this. All general and special coefficients do not represent the average person. Private - give, but only about the average person at certain periods of his life, and not for his whole life. The total fertility rate, as it were, generalizes (sums up) all particular (age) coefficients. It is a generalizing indicator, i.e. characterizes all fertility, but unlike the general and special coefficients, does not depend on the age structure and characterizes the average woman. In this way, total fertility rate - the only demographic indicator for which there is a standard value corresponding to a simple replacement of generations. The norm is 2.1 per abstract woman, 2.5-2.6 - for married women who are able to give birth and keep the marriage until the end of childbearing age.
Some Soviet demographers (B.Ts. Urlanis, V.A. Borisov, A.I. Antonov and others) already at the end of the 60s. and in the 70s. XX century they began to express concern about the fact that the total fertility rate in Russia is lower than simple generational replacement. They were told: there is nothing to worry about, because the number of births exceeds the number of deaths. The mistake of the "optimists" consisted in a misunderstanding of the difference between the two processes - the replacement of the dead by those who were born, which occurs immediately, and the replacement of parents by children as a generation (occurs through a generation, and the length of a generation - i.e. average age mother at the birth of a child is about 25 years old). Now in Russia we have a population decline, although it began only in 1992.
Children as a generation replace their parents in the age structure of the population, and this replacement occurs only when they reach the middle age in which their parents were at the time of their birth. This average age for mothers is about 25 years, for fathers - about 27 years, for both parents (on average) - 26 years. However, already according to the data for the year in which the children were born, it is possible to calculate the total fertility rate (as well as life tables) and get a fairly accurate idea of the quantitative level at which this replacement will occur. But the fact that the total fertility rate falls below the critical level does not mean that the population At once begins to shrink.
The fact is that born children as a component of population dynamics replace people who died in the same year when these children themselves were born. In the overwhelming majority of cases, these deceased are not their parents, but grandparents, and even great-grandfathers and great-grandmothers. The average life expectancy in Russia in 2000 was 59 years for men and 72 years for women, and for both sexes as a whole - 65 years, that is, about 40 years more than the average age of parents at childbirth. This means that within 40 years, and sometimes longer (if life expectancy is higher than in today's Russia or if the age composition of the population is artificially rejuvenated due to the influx of migrants), an inertial natural population growth is possible. Ultimately, however, the existence of a low fertility regime for one or two generations turns a young, growing population into an old, declining population. How this happens is shown in diagram 1.
At the first stage, the demographic situation is not a cause for concern. The number of births exceeds the number of deaths, and the total fertility rate is a critical value of 2.1 children. Age structure of the population progressive type, that is, quite young - there are more children than parents, more parents than grandparents.
Second phase - intermediate - comes in one generation. During this time, the generation of those people who at the first stage were grandparents almost completely dies out. The generation of parents is turning into the generation of grandparents, and the generation of children - into the generation of parents who give life to a new generation of children. But the birth rate at the same time decreases, and its total coefficient turns out to be below the line of simple replacement of generations. Because of this, the number of children is lower than the number of parents. But there are also fewer grandparents than parents, and even fewer than children. After all, these grandfathers and grandmothers at one time gave birth to a generation larger in number than themselves.
Stage III
Stage I
Progressive type. Young, fast growing population. Total coeff. the birth rate is above the replacement line (2.1), and the number of births is greater than the number of deaths.
Stage II. Intermediate type. An aging population, slowly growing by inertia. Total coeff. fertility rates below the replacement line (2.1), but the number of births bye still exceeds the number of deaths.
Stage III. Regressive type. Old declining population. Total coeff. the birth rate is below the replacement line (2.1), and the number of births is less than the number of deaths.
Natural movement of the population Is the change in population as a result of births and deaths.
The study of natural movement is carried out using absolute and relative indicators.
Absolute indicators
1. The number of births for the period(R)
2. The number of deaths for the period(Ooh)
3. Natural increase (decrease) population, which is defined as the difference between the number of births and deaths for the period: EP = P - U
Relative indicators
Among the indicators of population movement, there are: the birth rate, the death rate, the rate of natural increase and the rate of vitality.
All coefficients, except for the vitality coefficient, are calculated in per thousand, that is, per 1000 people of the population, and the vitality coefficient is determined as a percentage (that is, per 100 people of the population).
Total fertility rate
Shows how many people are born during a calendar year on average for every 1000 people of the current population
Crude mortality rate
Shows how many people die during a calendar year on average for every 1000 people of the current population and is determined by the formula:
The mortality rate in Russia (the number of deaths per 1000 population) from 11.2 ppm in 1990 increased to 15.2 in 2006, and the birth rate fell, respectively, from 13.4 to 10.4 ppm in 2006.
High mortality is associated with a steady upward trend in morbidity... In comparison with our ailments become chronic for 15-20 years. Hence the massive disability and premature mortality.
Natural growth rate
Shows the value of natural increase (decrease) of the population during the calendar year on average per 1000 people of the current population and is calculated in two ways:
Vitality coefficient
Shows the relationship between fertility and mortality, characterizes the reproduction of the population. If the Vitality Coefficient is less than 100%, then the population of the region dies out, if it is above 100%, then the population increases. This coefficient is determined in two ways:
Special indicators
In demographic statistics, in addition to general coefficients, special indicators are also calculated:
Marriage rate
Shows the number of marriages per 1000 people during a calendar year.
Marriage rate = (number of people married / average annual population) * 1000
Divorce rate
Shows how many divorces occur per thousand of the population during a calendar year. For example, in 2000, there were 6.2 marriages and 4.3 divorces for every 1000 people in Russia.
Divorce rate = (number of persons divorced per year / average annual population) * 1000
Infant death rate
It is calculated as the sum of two components (in ppm).
- The first is the ratio of the number of deaths under one year of age from the generation born this year, for which the coefficient is calculated, to the total number of births this year.
- The second is the ratio of the number of deaths under one year of age from the generation born in the previous year to the total number of those born in the previous year.
In 2000, this figure was 15.3 ‰ in our country.
To infant mortality = (number of deaths of children under 1 year old / number of live births per year) * 1000
Age fertility rate
Shows the number of births on average per 1000 women in each age group
Special fertility rate (fertility)
Shows the number of births per 1000 women aged 15 to 49 on average.
Age-specific mortality rate
Shows the average number of deaths per 1000 people in the population of a given age group.
Total fertility rate
It depends on the age structure of the population and shows how many children on average one woman would give birth to during her life, if the existing birth rate remained at each age.
Life expectancy at birth
One of critical indicators calculated in international. It shows the number of years that, on average, a person from the generation of births would have to live, provided that throughout the life of this generation, age and sex mortality remains at the level of the year for which this indicator is calculated. It is calculated by compiling and analyzing life tables, which calculate the number of survivors and deaths for each generation.
Life expectancy at birth in 2000 was 65.3 years in Russia, including 59.0 for men; for women - 72.2 years.
The coefficient of efficiency of population reproduction
Shows the share of natural increase in the total turnover of the population
Fertility- the process of childbearing in a specific set of people for a certain period of time.
Speaking about fertility in human society, it should be remembered that in this case it is determined not only by biological, but also by socio-economic processes, living conditions, everyday life, traditions, religious attitudes and other factors.
Live birth is the complete expulsion or extraction from the mother's body of the product of conception, regardless of the duration of pregnancy, which, after such a separation, breathes or shows other signs of life (heartbeat, pulsation of the umbilical cord or obvious movements of voluntary muscles, regardless of whether the umbilical cord is cut and the placenta is separated).
Viable(according to the WHO definition) is considered a child born with a period of 20-22 weeks of pregnancy and later with a body weight of 500 g and above, in which at least one of the signs of live birth is determined after birth.
By stillbirth is the death of the product of conception before its complete expulsion or extraction from the mother's body, regardless of the duration of pregnancy. Fetal death is indicated by the absence of breathing or any other signs of life, such as palpitations, pulsation of the umbilical cord, or voluntary muscle movements.
Organization of birth registration |
According to the law, within a month from the date of birth, all children must be registered with the registry office at their place of birth or the place of residence of their parents. Registration of births of a found child, whose parents are unknown, is carried out within 7 days from the date of his finding at the request of the guardianship and guardianship authority, the administration of the children's institution where the child is placed, the territorial body of the Ministry of Internal Affairs or the person with whom the child is. Along with the application to the registry office, documents are provided (act, protocol, certificate) indicating the time, place and circumstances of the discovery of the child and a certificate from the medical institution about the age of the child.
The main document for registering a child with the registry office is the "Medical certificate of birth" (f. 103 / u-08). It is issued when the mother is discharged from the hospital by all health care institutions in which the birth took place, in all cases of live birth. In case of childbirth at home, the "Medical Birth Certificate" is issued by the institution medical worker who took delivery. In case of multiple births, the "Medical birth certificate" is filled in for each child separately.
In settlements and medical institutions where medical personnel work, a "Medical Birth Certificate" is compiled by a doctor. In rural areas, in health care facilities that do not have doctors, it can be issued by the midwife or paramedic who took the birth.
In the event of the child's death, before the mother leaves the maternity hospital or other medical institution, it is also mandatory to fill in the "Medical birth certificate", which is provided together with the "Perinatal death certificate" to the registry office.
A record on the issuance of a "Medical birth certificate" with an indication of its number and date of issue must be made in the "History of the development of a newborn" (f. 097 / y), in the case of a stillbirth - in the "History of childbirth" (f. 096 / y). To take into account the birth rate, calculate a number of demographic indicators, it is extremely important to determine whether a child was born alive or dead, gestational age, term, etc.
Live birth statistics |
Health care institutions register in the medical documentation all live and dead births with a birth weight of 500 g or more. In the registry office, the following are subject to registration:
- those born alive with a body weight of 1000 g or more (or, if the birth weight is unknown, a body length of 35 cm or more, or a gestation period of 28 weeks or more), including newborns weighing 1000 g with multiple births;
- those born alive with a body weight of 500 to 999 g are also subject to registration with the registry office as live births if they have lived for more than 168 hours after birth.
Premature children born at a gestational age of less than 37 weeks and showing signs of prematurity are considered.
Full-term children born at a gestational age of 37 to 40 weeks are considered.
Post-worn children born between 41 and 43 weeks of gestation and showing signs of overmaturity are considered. In addition, the concept is highlighted prolonged or physiologically prolonged pregnancy, which lasts more than 42 weeks and ends with the birth of a full-term, functionally mature child without signs of overmaturity and danger to his life.
In connection with the peculiarities of obstetric tactics and nursing of children born at different periods of gestation, it is advisable to distinguish the following intervals:
- premature birth at 22-27 weeks (fetal weight from 500 to 1000 g);
- premature birth at 28-33 weeks (fetal weight 1000-1800 g);
- premature birth at 34-37 weeks (fetal weight 1900-2500 g).
The largest percentage of premature births occurs at 34-37 weeks of gestation (55.3%); in the 22-27 weeks gestation period, abortions occur 10 times less often (5.7%).
Risk factors for premature birth are both socio-demographic (unsettled family life, low social level, age under 20 or over 35) and medical (previous abortions and premature births, spontaneous miscarriages, urinary tract infections, inflammatory diseases genitals, endocrine disorders).
More than 40 thousand births registered in the Russian Federation are premature every year. The share of normal births in 2002 was 31.7% (2000 - 31.1%).
Total fertility rate- is calculated as the ratio of the absolute number of births to the average population for a period, usually a year. For clarity, this ratio is multiplied by 1000 and is measured in ppm.
| Scheme for assessing the total fertility rate | |
| Total fertility rate (per 1000 population) | Fertility rate |
| To 10 | Very low |
| 10-15 | Short |
| 16-20 | Below the average |
| 21-25 | Average |
| 26-30 | Above average |
| 31-40 | High |
| Over 40 | Very tall |
The value of the total fertility rate depends not only on the intensity of fertility (the average number of live births), but also on demographic and other characteristics, primarily on the age-sex and marriage structures of the population. Therefore, he gives only the very first, approximate idea of the birth rate. To eliminate the influence of these demographic structures on fertility rates, other, specifying indicators are calculated.
Calculated in relation to the number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years).
The general and special fertility rates are related to each other by the ratio:
Age-specific fertility (fertility) rates measure the intensity of fertility in a particular age group of women and are calculated as the ratio of the number of births among women of a particular age group to the average annual number of women in this age group.
When calculating the special and age-specific fertility (fertility) rates, it is customary to refer all births to mothers under 15 years of age to the age of 15 years or to the interval of 15-19 years. Births to mothers over 49 years old should be referred to the age of 49 years or to the interval of 44-49 years, respectively. This does not reduce the accuracy of determining the age-specific coefficients for these ages due to the very small number of births in the youngest (under 15 years) and in the oldest (50 years and older) ages. However, if the purpose of the study is to study fertility in these age groups, then, of course, age-specific coefficients for them are calculated according to the general rule.
The age-specific fertility (fertility) rates make it possible to analyze the level and dynamics of the intensity of fertility in a conditional generation, free from the influence of the age structure of both the population as a whole and women of reproductive age. This is their advantage over the general and special fertility rates. However, the inconvenience of age-specific coefficients is that their number is too large: if these coefficients are calculated for one-year intervals, then there are 35 of them, and if for 5-year-olds, then 7. To overcome this difficulty and be able to analyze the level and dynamics of fertility using one the indicator, also free from the influence of the age structure, calculate the so-called cumulative birth rates, of which the total birth rate (fertility) is the most famous and widespread.
Total fertility rate (fertility) characterizes the average number of births of one woman in a hypothetical generation over her entire life, while maintaining the existing levels of fertility at each age, regardless of mortality rates and changes in the age composition. The value of the total fertility rate (fertility) above 4.0 is considered high, less than 2.15 - low. So, in 2002, the total fertility (fertility) rate in the Russian Federation was 1.32 children per woman, which does not even provide a simple replacement of generations.
Partial fertility rates are calculated to eliminate the influence of other demographic structures. In particular, where extramarital births take a significant place among all births, they expect
- marriage rate (fertility)
- out-of-wedlock birth rate (fertility)
In 2002, 411.5 thousand children were born in the Russian Federation out of a registered marriage, or 29.5% of the total number of births.
In addition to the age of the mother, in the analysis of fertility, the number of children that a woman gave birth in the past, or the order (sequence) of birth, is important. In demography, the following birth order indicators are used for a conditional generation:
- special birth rate (fertility) by birth order;
- age-specific fertility rate by birth order.
It is a very informative indicator when analyzing the process of declining fertility, since among the population with low fertility, the values of this coefficient for higher birth orders are practically zero.
Supplements the previous indicator, taking into account the age structure of women of reproductive age.
| Indicator name | Calculation method | Initial stat forms. documents | ||
| Total fertility rate | = | x 1000 | f. 103 / u-08 | |
| Average annual population | ||||
| Special fertility rate (fertility) | = | The total number of live births per year | x 1000 | f. 103 / u-08 |
| Average annual number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years old) * | ||||
| Age-specific fertility (fertility) rate | = | The number of births to women of a certain age group | x 1000 | f. 103 / u-08 |
| The average annual number of women in this age group | ||||
| Total fertility rate (fertility) | = | Sum of age-specific fertility rates (for ages 15 to 49) | f. 103 / u-08 | |
| 1000 | ||||
| Marital fertility (fertility) rate | = | Number of children born in marriage | x 1000 | f. 103 / u-08 |
| The number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years old) who are married | ||||
| Extramarital fertility (fertility) rate | = | Number of births of children out of wedlock | x 1000 | f. 103 / u-08 |
| The number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years old) who are not married | ||||
| Special fertility (fertility) rate by birth order | = | Number births of the i-th queues | x 1000 | f. 103 / u-08 |
| Number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years old) | ||||
| Age-specific fertility rate by birth order | = | Births of the i-th order in women of a certain age group | x 1000 | f. 103 / u-08 |
| The number of women in this age group | ||||
* According to the WHO definition, reproductive (childbearing) is considered to be the age of 15-45 years.
Fertility is the process of childbearing in the aggregate of people that make up a generation, or in the aggregate of generations.
The biological basis of fertility is a person's ability to reproduce offspring. The potential for childbearing - fertility, is realized in the aggregate of women as a result of reproductive behavior, which in society is determined by a system of socially conditioned needs and is regulated by social and cultural norms, religious traditions, public opinion and other factors.
To determine the intensity of the birth process, usually use fertility rates.
1. Total fertility rate. The average population for the year is calculated as the sum of the numbers of the population on the first day of each month, divided by 12, or, or as half the sum of the numbers at the beginning and end of the year.
Like any general coefficient, it provides only an approximate approximate idea of the intensity of the phenomenon in time and space and is largely related to the age-sex composition of the population and is calculated in relation to the total population; while only women give birth, and not at any age.
———————————————————— 1000
Average annual population
2. Fertility rate. This is a special indicator, it gives more accurate fertility characteristics. Designed for women of reproductive age.
Reproductive age (synonymous with generative) is the age of a woman at which she is fertile. The indication of the boundaries of the reproductive age in demography characterizes the duration of the reproductive period. As a rule, the reproductive age for women is understood to be the age of 15 - 49 years.
The proportion of women of reproductive age depends on total number births and the crude birth rate. The larger this share, the more, other things being equal, the greater the total number of births and the total fertility rate.
3. Fertility indicators: specify the fertility rate, for this, when calculating the entire reproductive period, women are conditionally subdivided into separate intervals (15-19, 20-24, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49 years) ...
1. Index of general fertility:
Total live births per year
—————————————————————————- 1000
Average annual number of women aged 15 - 49 years
2. Indicator of age-specific fertility:
Total live births per year
in women of the appropriate age
————————————————————— 1000
Average annual number of women
appropriate age
4. The total fertility rate shows how many children, on average, one woman would give birth to throughout her life, while maintaining the existing fertility rate at each age. It is calculated as the sum of age-specific fertility rates calculated for one-year age groups, does not depend on the age composition of the population and characterizes the average fertility rate in a given calendar period.
Since practically not the entire population is involved in the process of fertility, and actually births occur among women of a certain age, a more accurate representation is given by special fertility rates - fertility coefficients. They are calculated either as a general indicator (the number of births per 1000 women of reproductive age, i.e. from 15 to 49 years), or in the form of coefficients of age-specific fertility, for which the entire generative period of women is conventionally divided into separate intervals (15-19 , 20-24, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49 years old). The number of births before and after this age interval is negligible and negligible.